Good Wednesday AM (the best day of the week) from Your Hometown Lender,

ADP Payrolls were weak, and GDP was revised downward.

Bonds are doing well as a result. The 10yr back to 4.10% and if we get some weaker data tomorrow and Friday, the 10yr could trade below 4% again soon. It is not surprising that we stopped here at 4.10.. it is a strong Fibonacci level. Just need another push. It will come.

In a new analysis, Zillow economists estimated that home prices will rise by 6.5% between July 2023 and July 2024 because of limited inventory and stronger-than-expected demand.

Interesting point here:

To put today’s affordability levels in perspective, it would take some combination of up to a 28% decline in home prices, a more than 4% reduction in 30-year mortgage rates or up to a 60% growth in median household incomes to bring home affordability back to its 25-year average.

I know I mentioned the Jolts report yesterday but didn’t focus on an equally important, quits rate—which is resignations as a share of overall employment—it fell to 2.3%, the lowest level since January 2021 and matching the 2019 average. That decline should be especially cheering for the Federal Reserve, since quits might actually be a better reading on job-market tightness than openings. When people quit their job, it is usually because they have found a better one elsewhere, often at higher pay,.

Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!