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Market Snapshot 8.30.23- GDP Was Revised Downward

Good Wednesday AM (the best day of the week) from Your Hometown Lender,

ADP Payrolls were weak, and GDP was revised downward.

Bonds are doing well as a result. The 10yr back to 4.10% and if we get some weaker data tomorrow and Friday, the 10yr could trade below 4% again soon. It is not surprising that we stopped here at 4.10.. it is a strong Fibonacci level. Just need another push. It will come.

In a new analysis, Zillow economists estimated that home prices will rise by 6.5% between July 2023 and July 2024 because of limited inventory and stronger-than-expected demand.

Interesting point here:

To put today’s affordability levels in perspective, it would take some combination of up to a 28% decline in home prices, a more than 4% reduction in 30-year mortgage rates or up to a 60% growth in median household incomes to bring home affordability back to its 25-year average.

I know I mentioned the Jolts report yesterday but didn’t focus on an equally important, quits rate—which is resignations as a share of overall employment—it fell to 2.3%, the lowest level since January 2021 and matching the 2019 average. That decline should be especially cheering for the Federal Reserve, since quits might actually be a better reading on job-market tightness than openings. When people quit their job, it is usually because they have found a better one elsewhere, often at higher pay,.

Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!