Good Tuesday AM,

No Joy in Mudville (I don’t think Casey At The Bat sees much action in schools these days) today.

It could be a whole lot worse (as I remind myself each day bonds are under pressure) as the released data was mostly strong. Somehow Retail Sales blew past expectations. Admittedly, I don’t understand it. Both topline and the core level came in super strong. It could have meant a world of hurt for bonds, but they are just about flat on the day. Of equal surprise was the builder sentiment which came in far lower than expected. From a growth reading of 56, it printed 50 which is neutral.. and bordering contraction. It is something to watch but not be alarmed about.

I do think that the economy is facing and is going to face several headwinds in the coming months.

Unfortunately, that typically means stress and hardship for many. The WSJ shared a report on homelessness. This is not surprisingly going to be one of the first dominos to fall along with defaults on auto, credit cards, and student loans. While I suspect home prices to increase on a lack of supply, rents are likely to fall.

The U.S. has seen a record increase in homeless people this year as the Covid-19 pandemic fades, according to a Wall Street Journal review of data from around the country. The data so far this year are up roughly 11% from 2022, a sharp jump that would represent by far the biggest recorded increase since the government started tracking comparable numbers in 2007. The next highest increase was a 2.7% jump in 2019, excluding an artificially high increase last year caused by pandemic counting interruptions. This year’s surge reflects a host of pressures around the U.S. such as rising housing costs, lack of affordable rental units and the nation’s continuing opioid crisis, according to reports from nonprofits and government agencies counting the homeless. The Journal reviewed available data from more than 300 entities that count homeless people in areas ranging from cities to entire states. Those entities accounted for eight of every nine homeless people counted last year. The Journal’s tally thus far includes more than 577,000 homeless people. The biggest driver remains high housing costs, which are now taking a heavier toll following the wind down of pandemic-era relief spending and policies such as eviction moratoriums, according to advocates for the homeless.

Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!