Good morning on this Thursday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Bonds are backing up ever so slightly with the 10yr at 4.29% from 4.28% yesterday.

This is absolutely about consolidation after the run we have had in advance of tomorrow’s employment report. Markets are prepared for 180k new jobs, hourly earnings +.3%, and a 3.9% unemployment rate. The employment report will certainly cause volatility.

The ECB followed suit on the expectations they set and cut rates by .25% today.

They see inflation taking longer to moderate than had previously expected and would not commit to any preset path (likely means they will not move at the next meeting), but at least the seal is now broken. This is after the Bank of Canada dropped their rate yesterday. Will the Federal Reserve enter the fray at its own policy meeting next week? Right now, Wall Street traders say no. They are placing less than 1% odds on a cut next week, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool. But odds of a cut in late July have been creeping higher after a run of weak data. They stand at about 19%, up from 12% a week ago. As a reminder, private payrolls processor ADP said Wednesday that the U.S. added 152,000 jobs in May, below Wall Street’s expectations, following weak manufacturing data on Monday. Things could get interesting if this week’s main event–Friday’s May jobs report from the Labor Department–disappoints.

It is tough to float into such a big news event.

America’s Commute to Work Is Getting Longer and Longer

Thanks to factors like rising house prices and the staying power of hybrid work, commutes of over an hour for American workers have become more common and apparently, more palatable. The share of super commutes—those 75 miles or longer— are up by nearly a third since 2020, according to new research from Stanford University.

Stay safe and make today great!