Good Monday Morning, from your Hometown Lender,

No economic data today although this is a busy week.

We have Consumer Confidence, all of the employment data sets between Wednesday and Friday including the biggest report of the month, the BLS jobs report. In between all of that, we have a FOMC/Fed meeting with an interest rate decision and forward guidance on Wednesday.

Bonds are starting up a bit as is the equity market.

I am sure it is just positioning before the Fed announcement Wednesday. I would not be surprised to see bonds flip flop later in the day or tomorrow as traders play a bit more defense. Unless there is some black swan event today, I don’t see bonds improving substantially before the Fed announcement. The question is, what happens then? I think. Mr. Powell could speak about immigration being the biggest catalyst to the employment numbers and hope he also speaks to slowing down the Fed bond sales. Both of those would be helpful. I don’t think there is any chance the Fed drops rates this time around, but it would be good to hear the Chairman say the Fed does still see rate cuts appropriate in 2024. That’s a lot to hope for but some or all of that will be necessary for bonds to improve substantially.

Yes, we all know rates are high.

The WSJ shared the below graph on where they are the highest (darkest color) and the lowest (lighter color). Nevada and Iowa are the lowest in the country. Good information to share.

Stay safe, make today great!