Good Thursday AM,

Bonds are struggling today after we hit resistance and fell back hard.

The 10-yr is at 3.77% and mortgage bonds are off 20bps. I suspect we will get an opportunity to test the next line in the sand again and if we get rejected again, we may move lower in the range (higher rates). The news today was mixed, but it is not helping or hurting us. Tomorrow’s news is light, so the charts will dictate what happens next without fundamental influence. Lastly, we have some Fed members speaking today and a couple already speaking. These guys are on a continued mission to disrupt the markets with their hawkish statements about the terminal Fed funds rate north of 5% and possibly a 7 handle. That would be a worst-case scenario for all of us.

On a more positive note…

Shares of home builders, building-products, and appliance companies are rebounding, outperforming the broader stock market, after mortgage rates eased off their recent highs. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders exchange-traded fund rose 9.3% in the past week, recently posting its strongest run since April 2020. 

Behind. The jumps are signs that some of the pressures on the housing market are beginning to ease. Lower rates will continue to increase confidence and velocity in the industry.

We need more bodies. Plain and simple. Workers will have the upper hand in the job market as demographic changes make it harder for employers to hire and retain staff, according to a new study. The chart below is frightening.

• What’s happening: An aging population and reduced immigration have led to a smaller pool of workers overall, economists at Glassdoor and Indeed say.
• What it means: In order to remain competitive, employers will need to be flexible with in-office expectations for remote-capable jobs, offer attractive pay and benefits, and cultivate a healthy company culture.

And I’m not sure why I’m sharing this but it seemed interesting.

The WSJ wrote, get ready to fork over more for this year’s Thanksgiving meal. American families will spend about 14% more this year on their holiday dinner thanks to higher prices of turkey, flour, eggs and other staples, according to data from Information Resources Inc. Increasing costs of ingredients, production and transportation could add up to what IRI projects to be the priciest Thanksgiving meal in recent memory.

Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!