Good Tuesday AM,

Good amount of data today and it all came in weaker than expected.

The 10-yr note is back below 3.80 and if we can close below 3.75%, we will run down and test 3.67% giving us another .125% rate improvement.

• Retail Sales 0.2 on expectations of 0.5
• Ex Autos 0.2 on expectations of 0.3
• Industrial Production -0.5 on expectations of 0.0
• Capacity Utilization 78.9 on expectations of 79.5

I don’t think this changes next week’s Fed decision to hike another .25 after so much rhetoric, but maybe they do back off the expectation about hiking twice. The ECB was out today setting that same expectation. A hike next week and then likely a pause. Floating has not worked out well for the past year, so I would whisper that it looks fairly safe to float for the moment.

Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!