Good Morning on this best day of the week, Wednesday, from your Hometown Lender,
ADP payroll data came in super strong today.
On expectations for 150k new jobs, the print was 183. Something like 22% above expectation. Still, the bond market is having a good day with the 10-yr yield now below resistance at 4.42%. Let’s see if the gains hold today. If so, I would float into tomorrow and lock then. I do not see floating into the jobs report on Friday being a good idea.
Why the move today on the heels of better payroll data?
Uncertainty in the market. Are you keeping score? In the past two weeks, President Trump:
- Joked (not really) about Canada being the 51st state
- Wants to take back the Panama canal
- Buy Greenland
- Now, take over Gaza, make it into a US Riviera, and displace all inhabitants to other Middle East countries
- Not to mention, imposing tariffs on China
- Securing both the Northern and Southern Border
- Sending illegal criminal immigrants to Guantanamo Bay and other South American Countries
- Setting up a Government Fund to buy Tik-Tok
- Etc…
You may not agree with some or even all of the policies but you have to agree that he has shaken up the place. Markets are not happy about uncertainty and in the face of it, money flows into bonds.
A quick anecdote on the Treasury Dept is below.
I am not sure I feel comfortable with DOGE having such unabated access to the Treasury Dept. Not that the Treasury and all US Government Departments don’t need an upgrade but should it be just one person that makes the decision?
Despite the billions of dollars at stake, the US Treasury’s quarterly announcement about how it plans to raise debt is often just a matter of passing interest. Traders tune in to hear about coming bond sales, but swiftly move on given the department’s commitment to be “regular and predictable.” Today’s will draw a brighter spotlight for two reasons related to the arrival of the Trump administration.
First, as we wrote on Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has the option to align the department’s management of the nation’s debt with his past view that it should be selling more longer-dated maturities.
Second, the event will provide the first opportunity for officials to be quizzed about the role being played in the Treasury by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Musk revealed at the weekend his “DOGE team” is looking at the department’s payments-processing division and shutting down some payments. If that effort veered into legally legitimate transfers, either on purpose or by accident, that would be sure to spark debates in Washington and on Wall Street over whether the federal government is following through on its obligations.
Bloomberg reported yesterday that at least two people connected to Musk have joined the Treasury. In response to questions, the department said the DOGE had read-only access to data. But Washington is already tuning in. Democrat Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ron Wyden have warned “a misstep here could result in a global financial meltdown” and asked the Government Accountability Office to investigate.
Hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Treasury’s Washington headquarters Tuesday afternoon chanting and holding signs declaring “Stop Elon’s Takeover” and “Hands Off Our Money.”
Clinton-era Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers told Bloomberg Television that it would be a welcome development if government systems end up being upgraded.
But “this is an area where the Treasury secretary has an important responsibility – as all Treasury secretaries do – to protect the basic integrity of the way the government does finance.’’ “My expectation would be that Secretary Bessent will live up to that obligation,” he said.



Stay safe and make today great!!!