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Market Snapshot 02/04/2025- The Week Is Full

Good Tuesday AM from your Hometown Lender,

The economic calendar for the week is full.

The first of the employment centric reports, The JOLTS (Job Openings) report came in weak today which is bond friendly. If it weren’t for the uncertainty of where tariffs are going (more below), bonds would be reacting a bit stronger, none the less after yesterday’s whipsaw reaction to the on and then off tariffs, bonds for the moment have settled down right in the middle of their current trading channel, with the 10yr at 4.53%. The data continues to get more important each day from here. I don’t know I would float much further past today as we could see rates take a hit if the data comes in stronger than expected.

Tariffs are all over the news.

What do they mean, What will happen, and a lot of other What’s. I think yesterday’s events where tariffs were imposed on Canada and Mexico and then paused for a month shows that President Trump is well equipped to use tariffs as an economic bargaining tool (or sledgehammer). China so far, has been the lone holdout not acquiescing in the face of a 10% tariff and despite imposing a 15% tariff on some US Goods, they will capitulate. We are China’s number one biggest trading partner and our imports from China are 3x that of our exports. I did the math, and it doesn’t work out well for China. I suspect there will be a trade recalibration soon. It does though give a glimpse into the President’s playbook. I think tariffs are being thrown around much sooner than they were in his first term. Economic sanction hurt and no country wants to go toe to toe with the biggest economy in the world.

Speaking on the CFPB (which no one likes apparently including the President)…

Not only did President Trump fire director Chopra but he also gave Treasury Secretary Bessent double duty appointing him the interim CFPB Director. Mr. Bessent’s first action was ordering a freeze to work. In an internal email, Bessent’s office directed CFPB staff to cease much of the bureau’s work, including on enforcement actions and decisions about active litigation. The email also directs staff to suspend the effective dates for rules that had been completed but aren’t yet in effect. Kinder friendlier government.. Good news..

We have gotten some housing activity news recently, some good insight is below..

U.S. Home Sales Slow as Prices and Inventory Rise
Due to the high cost of purchasing a home—mortgage rates are close to 7%, and housing prices are rising 4.8% annually—sales are slow. At $2,753 per month, the median house payment is slightly below the record high set in April. Extreme weather is also keeping potential buyers at home, including wildfires in Southern California and snow and bitter cold in the Midwest, South, and Northeast.


As new listings increase and mortgage rates decline—at least somewhat—from their peak in early January, the market should pick up steam in the upcoming weeks. Redfin brokers also anticipate that some purchasers may soon leave the sidelines as they become weary of waiting for prices and rates to drop.

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity:

Leading indicators:Recent changeYoY changeSource
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rateDown from 7.04% a week earlier, but still near highest level since MayUp from 6.69%Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)Essentially unchanged (down 0.4%)  from a week earlier (as of week ending Jan. 24)Down 7%Mortgage Bankers Association 
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)Lowest level since June (as of week ending Jan. 26)Down 1%Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activityUp 7% from the start of the year (as of Jan. 26)At this time last year, it was up 8% from the start of 2024ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”Up 14% from a month earlier (as of Jan. 26)Essentially unchangedGoogle Trends 

Key Housing-Market Data — National

U.S. HighlightsFour weeks ending January 26, 2025Year-over-year change
Median sale price$377,1254.8%
Median asking price$407,2255.2%
Median monthly mortgage payment$2,753 at a 6.96% mortgage rate8% (highest level since April)
Pending sales59,044-9.4% (biggest decline since September 2023)
New listings68,0542.2%
Active listings889,20211.3% (smallest increase in nearly a year)
Months of supply5.2+0.3 pts. to longest span in nearly 6 years (4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions)
Share of homes off market in two weeks25.7%Down from 29%
Median days on market54+7 days to longest span in nearly 5 years
Share of homes sold above list price21%Down from 23%
Average sale-to-list price ratio98%Down from 98.1%

Stay safe and make today great!!!