Good Thursday am from your Hometown Lender. Let’s see what today’s market analysis has for us!
Yesterday‘s market analysis: mortgage bonds improved though the afternoon and ended the day with a healthy jump up.
Rates are improving today, but after hitting the worst levels of the year yesterday that’s not much to get excited about. Bonds like comments that Fed Governor Waller made this morning that he thinks the Fed doesn’t need to hike rates, and that’s all markets needed to hear to head off to the races.
Keep in mind though, although bonds are improving a bit, oil continues to creep higher, pointing to further worsening, and tomorrow’s jobs data could take all the wind right back out of the sails. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, when the dust settles and traders come to their senses, the early bonds gains may not hold. However, they don’t seem to be in too much of a hurry to worsen at the moment.
Jobless claims were flat this morning, coming in just about as expected, pointing to a stable labor market. Although that’s not an indication of what we’ll see with tomorrow’s BLS jobs data. 10 a.m. will bring another ISM report, but don’t expect that to make any big waves. The market’s still pricing in a Fed rate cut in September, however less likely than it was a day or two ago.
Don’t get me wrong, bonds are improving this morning, and rate sheets will definitely look a bit better, but this is far from a reversal of the trend that we’ve seen.
Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:
Bonds are catching their breath this morning. Unfortunately, inflation hasn’t agreed to take the day off.
Mortgage figures are September 2 national benchmarks, not personalized quotes. At 10:48 a.m. ET today, Treasury yields were lower and mortgage-bond prices higher—potential support for better lender pricing. Mortgage rates · Bond snapshot
Market Analysis – Why It’s Happening
The Fed leaves the door open. Governor Christopher Waller said he could support holding rates steady in September if inflation continues cooling, while remaining open to a hike if it accelerates. That’s conditional flexibility—not a promise of rate cuts. Reuters
Layoffs remain relatively steady. Initial unemployment claims rose just 2,000 to 206,000 last week, offering little evidence of a sudden deterioration. Labor Department
Business activity is stronger; prices remain troublesome. August’s ISM services index increased to 55.4, signaling expansion. New orders strengthened, but input-price pressures increased and employment remained in contraction territory. Market analysis translation: businesses are busy, but hiring and inflation aren’t following the same script. ISM
Market Analysis – Political & Global Backdrop
Washington buys time. President Trump signed temporary funding legislation Wednesday, keeping the government funded through December 11 and averting an October shutdown. The immediate deadline is resolved; the longer-term budget debate isn’t. Reuters
Energy remains a wildcard. Market analysis: renewed Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above $97 earlier today, reinforcing concerns about supply disruptions and inflation. Reuters
What It Means
My take: today’s bond improvement is encouraging, but stronger demand and energy risks argue against assuming a sustained mortgage-rate decline.
Tomorrow’s government jobs report arrives at 5:30 a.m. Pacific / 8:30 a.m. Eastern—the next major test. BLS calendar
Lock vs. Float
- Within 15 days: Favor locking a payment that works.
- 15–30 days: Maintain a modest locking bias.
- Beyond 30 days: Consider floating only with budget flexibility and a clear lock trigger.
Market analysis bottom line: Buy with a payment plan—not a prediction. Crystal balls remain suspiciously absent from underwriting guidelines.
Stay safe and make today great!