Good Friday morning from your Hometown Lender. Let’s dive into Friday’s market analysis!

Yesterday bonds lost ground early as oil jumped overnight, but held steady as the day went on. Rates hit the highest level this year and the highest level since last July.

Rates today are a bit better than yesterday as bonds take a breath from losing ground. This is a reaction to oil falling back a bit. Oil remains the lever. Not only for how markets react but also how the Fed will use it to read the tea leaves regarding inflation. There is a Fed meeting next week. There is no change expected but it always brings volatility.

Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

10-Year Treasury: The 10-year hit roughly 4.71% yesterday, its highest level since January 2025, as the bond market repriced inflation and Fed expectations. Oil is pulling back today, providing modest relief, but yields remain elevated.
Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac’s latest weekly average climbed to 6.58% for the 30-year fixed — an 11-month high. MBA’s contract rate reached 6.69%, while today’s national consumer averages are roughly 6.7%. Translation: mortgage rates are officially being rude again.
Fed Watch: Next week’s Fed meeting just became much more interesting. Futures are pricing roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a rate hike, up dramatically from last week. The current Fed Funds target remains 3.50%–3.75%.
Oil & Geopolitics: Brent briefly surged above $100/barrel yesterday before retreating to roughly $97 today. Renewed U.S.–Iran fighting and attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea have markets worried about disruption at both the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes.
Economy: July’s flash Services PMI jumped to 53.6, the strongest since November, suggesting the economy entered Q3 with decent momentum. Strong growth is good for Main Street — unfortunately, bond traders occasionally take it personally.
Housing: June new-home sales rose 1.6% to a 628,000 annualized pace, beating expectations. Even better, the median new-home price fell 2.7% YoY to $398,300. Affordability remains difficult, but buyers are responding when price and incentives make sense.
Politics / Trade: The Trump administration imposed new 10%–12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 trading partners, including China and the EU. The tariffs add another potential inflation variable just as the Fed wrestles with higher energy prices.

Market Analysis – What It Means

The market is facing an uncomfortable combination:

Strong economy + $100-ish oil + new tariffs + geopolitical uncertainty = higher inflation risk and higher bond yields.

The good news is that oil retreated today and housing demand hasn’t disappeared.

In plain English: The consumer and housing market are proving surprisingly resilient — but bonds need inflation risk to cool before mortgage rates can meaningfully improve.

Market Analysis – Housing & Mortgage Strategy

This remains a structure-the-payment market.

Today’s best conversations:

Seller credits • Temporary buydowns • Permanent buydowns • Builder incentives • Strategic ARM options • Future refinance planning

June’s new-home numbers reinforce something important: buyers haven’t disappeared — affordability has.

Solve the payment and you can often solve the transaction.

Lock vs. Float

Closing within 30 days: Lock bias. With the Fed meeting next week, oil near $100 and geopolitical headlines capable of moving markets overnight, protecting acceptable pricing makes sense.
30+ days: Cautious floating can be considered, particularly if oil continues retreating.

Today’s guidance:
Lock the short ones. Manage the longer ones. Don’t gamble a good transaction hoping for a perfect rate.

Stay safe, have a great weekend, but first… make today great!