Good Thursday AM from your hometown lender,

Rates are leaking a tad as they have since Tuesday.

It is just trading up and down the same channel. The 10yr is at 4.40% so we are 4bps higher than Tuesday. The economic news today was 1) unemployment claims were lower than expected although continuing claims are the second highest since 2021 (the first highest was last week), 2) PMI came in higher but only on the service side, the manufacturing side tanked, 3) the ECB kept rates steady, and 4) new homes sales came in below estimates. Rates are now about the same as last Friday.

The bigger news should hit around 2pm pacific after President Trump tours the new Federal Reserve offices. I expect him to light Chairman Powell up yet again. President Trump does know construction and construction costs. If I were the general contractor on the job, I would be getting a game plan as you know that is the next stone to be turned over. That contractor is going to be under a lot of pressure. I can see them getting called in to a senate inquiry.

The Fed does meet next week on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Fed meeting (and more importantly Powell’s press conference) will likely cause some volatility, and if next Friday’s BLS jobs data shows strength again it won’t help rates move lower, that’s for sure.

Overall outlook is still that rates will remain near these levels and are not in danger of making any big moves higher but not poised to make any big moves lower.

On a positive note, President Trump said that the administration is exploring removing capital-gains taxes on home sales to spur the housing market amid high mortgage rates.

Stay safe and make today great!