Good Friday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Yesterday was a calm day for bonds, which ended the day slightly better than when pricing came out. Oil ended the day basically unchanged, and there was no change in the outlook for rates. Rate sheets today likely to be a little bit better than yesterday, but not all that much. Likely to see pricing similar to what we saw last Friday, which is a win after watching rates move higher early in the week. This is a normal summer Friday where trading volumes drop as traders take off for the beaches. Reprice risk on the day is low, despite continued military attacks in the Middle East we shouldn’t see anything big happen that would cause lenders to need to reprice. That said, I’d still suggest locking most/all loans ahead of the weekend.

From a higher and better view:

Quick Snapshot

Bonds: The 10-year Treasury is holding around 4.55%, giving back a bit of this week’s gains after solid retail sales and a resilient labor market reinforced the “higher-for-longer” narrative. Bonds had a good couple of days… then the economy reminded everyone it still has a pulse. (Sahm)

Mortgage Rates: Daily pricing has the 30-year fixed around 6.62% and the 15-year fixed around 5.99%. Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey also showed the average 30-year fixed at 6.55%, the highest level of 2026 so far. (The Wall Street Journal)

Inflation: This week’s CPI and PPI reports were both cooler than expected, easing immediate inflation concerns. However, higher energy prices and Middle East tensions continue to keep the Fed cautious. (Sahm)

Fed Watch: More Fed officials are openly discussing the possibility of another rate hike if inflation stalls. Markets still expect the Fed to hold at its next meeting, but expectations for a September hike have increased. (Reuters)

Consumer & Labor: June retail sales rose 0.2%, matching expectations, while initial jobless claims fell to 208,000, signaling consumers are still spending and employers continue to hold onto workers. (Sahm)

Housing: Higher mortgage rates continue to pressure affordability, and pending home sales remain soft. Buyers are still shopping—but they’re taking longer, negotiating harder, and watching every dollar. (MarketWatch)

What It Means

This week delivered encouraging inflation news, but strong consumer spending and a healthy labor market make it harder for the Fed to declare victory.

In plain English: Inflation is improving, but the economy isn’t slowing enough to guarantee lower mortgage rates anytime soon.

Housing & Mortgage Strategy

This remains a structure-the-payment market.

The best conversations right now are about:

Seller credits, temporary buydowns, permanent buydowns, builder incentives, ARM options where appropriate, and building a refinance strategy if rates improve later.

Today’s buyers are still buying—they simply want a payment that fits their budget.

Lock vs. Float

Lock bias: If closing within 30 days, locking remains the prudent strategy while mortgage rates remain near their highest levels of the year.

Float bias: Longer closing timelines may benefit if inflation continues to cool, but strong economic data and Fed uncertainty create meaningful volatility.

Today’s guidance:
Lean toward locking near-term closings. Continue watching inflation trends rather than trying to predict daily rate movements.

Stay safe and make today great!