Good Tuesday AM, from your Hometown Lender,

I hope you enjoyed the holiday weekend and took some time to be thankful for all of the service members who have sacrificed for our freedom.

Although our US markets were closed yesterday, a lot was going on.

News that President Trump has hit the pause on tariffs on European goods has given markets a boost. In some odd way, I think President Trump showing support for Ukraine (or denouncing Putin) and Europe’s position on Ukraine has had a positive impact, too. Also, Japan hinted it might slow down sales of its sovereign debt (bonds). The thought is that Asian investors might come back to buying US Treasuries. Perhaps the world order is once again regressing to the mean, and the US is regaining favor.  Love us or hate us, the reality is our financial markets dwarf all others. It’s kind of like the Amazon effect; at some point, you are going to buy from them.

The data today showed that Durable Goods orders were horrible… as in a negative 6.1%, but this is not as bad as the more horrible negative 7.9% expected. When we toss out the transportation order, Durable Goods eked out a gain. Consumer confidence came in at a monster number of 98 on expectations of just 87.3. People are feeling good that tariff concerns will be resolved without crushing the economy, I guess. That’s too early to tell.   

FHFA is out today with a recap of house prices.

I know everyone is chattering about prices deflating, but… the data says differently. House prices rose 4.0 percent between the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices for the first quarter of 2025 were up 0.7 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. 

Well, rates are better this morning than Friday AM, although we will see if we get follow-through buying, which is the real test now that we are at the bottom of the trading channel.

Keep fingers and toes crossed that we are moving away from uncertainty and into some normalized markets.

Stay safe and make today great!