Good Monday morning and welcome to November and the final push into the end of the year, from your Hometown Lender. Here is today’s market analysis!
Rate sheets this morning are a bit better than Fridays as mortgage bonds start the day with some gains and improve even more after the early economic data. What’s noticeable is that the 10-year Treasury yield is back down well below 5.00%, sitting at 4.91% this morning. The drop in the 10-year yield has been helped by a big drop in oil prices, with WTI crude back below $100 a barrel after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump prefers not to use military force against Iran and would likely resolve the conflict diplomatically. If you remember, oil pushed higher last week as markets grew concerned about military action immediately after this week’s midterm elections. Reprice risk on the day is low, and although we’re going to get a lot of labor market activity this week, the first hurdle will be tomorrow’s midterm elections. Markets should be happier when one chamber is red and one is blue so there are more clear checks and balances. The current momentum is in our favor to continue cautiously floating.
Market Analysis – From a higher and better view:
Better Bonds. Busy Ballots. Big Week.
November opens with firmer manufacturing, better mortgage bonds and an election tomorrow. The clocks changed; the need for a clear financing plan did not.
Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot
| Indicator | Reading | Timing |
| MND 30-year fixed | 7.27% | Friday, October 30 |
| MND 15-year fixed | 6.92% | Friday, October 30 |
| MND 30-year jumbo | 7.55% | Friday, October 30 |
| 10-year Treasury | 4.889%, down 4.1 basis points | Monday intraday |
| UMBS 6.0 mortgage bonds | 99.92, up 0.11 | Monday intraday |
Mortgage benchmarks are completed Friday readings. Bond quotes are snapshots; exact quote time was unavailable. [1]
1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning
October’s ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5, from 54.5 in September. Above 50 indicates manufacturing expansion. The prices index eased to 75.2 from 77.9, still signaling rising input costs. [2]
My read: production has momentum, but easing price pressure is not the same as falling prices.
Stocks also opened higher after Friday’s technology selloff: Reuters reported the Nasdaq up 1.2% and S&P 500 up 1% at the opening, alongside lower oil prices. Those are opening moves, not closing results. [3]
2) Fed Watch
The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote; both dissenters preferred a quarter-point increase. [4]
This week’s labor data can influence the next decision. JOLTS arrives Tuesday at 7 a.m. Pacific; October’s jobs report follows Friday at 5:30 a.m. Pacific. [5] Stronger-than-expected hiring or wages could complicate rate relief.
3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are
Friday’s 30-year benchmark finished at 7.27%. Monday’s stronger mortgage bonds offer a constructive start, but actual lender pricing still needs confirmation. [1]
Compare points, fees and lock terms alongside the rate. A headline rate without its costs is only half a conversation.
4) Market Analysis – Housing Market Check
The latest MBA application week covered October 23, when total applications rose 3.4%, according to MND’s Friday recap. [6] This is a recent weekly reading, not new Monday demand data.
Use improving pricing to refresh buying power—not automatically increase the budget. Compare eligible seller credits, a price reduction and buydowns using the same loan assumptions.
5) Political Backdrop & Fed Independence
Tomorrow’s midterms put congressional control in focus. Reuters reports investors are weighing effects on deficits, spending and oversight of AI, banking and crypto. Those are potential policy paths, not enacted changes or guaranteed market outcomes. [7]
Mortgage pricing will respond to how investors assess inflation, borrowing needs and growth. The ballot box does not set your lock rate, and election timing alone does not establish the Fed’s motives.
6) Rate Scenarios — Market Analysis, Not Predictions
| Development | Possible mortgage-market effect |
| Stronger hiring, wages or spending expectations | Upward pressure on yields and rates |
| Softer labor data or easing inflation pressure | Potential support for bonds and lower rates |
| Uncertain election results or shifting risk appetite | Volatility; direction may change quickly |
7) Practical Takeaways
- Buyers: Refresh the full payment, cash to close and reserves.
- Agents: Put credits, price cuts and buydowns on one comparison.
- Homeowners: Test refinance savings against costs and expected holding time.
- Buydown users: Confirm the payment after temporary assistance ends.
8) Lock vs. Float
Closing within 15–30 days? Maintain a modest lock bias when the payment works. Float only with budget flexibility and a defined lock trigger. Election week is a good time to have a plan before the alerts arrive.