Good morning on this best day of the week, Wednesday,

It is groundhog’s day (not the actual day but the spirit of it).

Rates are in a holding pattern. For the moment, the mortgage rate market is like a plane circling the airport waiting for authorization to land. I am hoping we land soon instead of running out of fuel (which is another king of landing). No reason to expect any big moves today, or tomorrow, or Friday. The minutes from the last Fed FOMC meeting will come out later today, but there won’t be any surprises in there that would cause even a small reaction in bonds.

The 10-yr Treasury auction will happen at 1pm ET, but that also is unlikely to cause anything but the smallest ripple in bonds. Throw in a few Fed speakers, and it’s still a recipe for absolutely nothing. While it’s possible that we could see bonds drift lower through the day, reprice risk is low. While not urgent, the bias is to lock and float down on improvement.

From a bit higher vantage point:

🏡 Mortgage Market & Rate Analysis

🔍 Current Mortgage Rate Snapshot

30-Year Fixed (Conforming): ~6.3%
Jumbo Loans: ~6.25%
Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): ~9.5% of applications
FNMA 30YR 5.5 Coupon: 100.99 (unchanged from yesterday)

Rates have remained in a tight range recently, with the 10-Year Treasury Note hovering between 4.08% and 4.20%. Today it opened at 4.12%, signaling continued market caution.

📉 Weekly Mortgage Application Trends

Total applications: -4.7% week-over-week
Purchases: -7.7%
Refinances: -1.2%

➡️ Continued slowdown as higher rates deter buyers.

🧠 Economic Data Recap (Past Week)

ISM Services PMI: 50.0 (vs 51.7 forecast) → slower service growth
ADP Payrolls: -32K (vs +51K forecast) → weak job creation
Consumer Confidence: 94.2 (vs 96.0 forecast) → slight dip in sentiment
PCE Inflation: 0.3% MoM (in line) → inflation remains sticky
GDP Revision: 3.8% (vs 3.3% forecast) → stronger-than-expected growth

➡️ Mixed signals: cooling labor market but persistent inflation — two key Fed watchpoints.

🏛️ Political News Impacting Rates

Government Shutdown Looms: Senate delays could push resolution past Oct 15 (impacting military paychecks).
President Trump’s Payroll Cut Proposal: potential reduction in federal spending if shutdown continues.
FOMC Minutes Today: markets scanning for Fed cut signals.
Global Central Banks: New Zealand cut rates by 50bps, showing global easing trend.

➡️ Political uncertainty raises volatility — mortgage rates may move up or down with sentiment.

📈 Rate Forecasts & Market Expectations

🗓️ 1-Month Outlook