And a good Monday morning to you from your Hometown Lender,

🏡 Mortgage Market & Rate Outlook — Monday, October 13, 2025

What’s happening today

Bond market is closed for Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day.
Stocks are open, but Treasuries/MBS are off, so rate sheets tend to be static or thin.
The government shutdown entered Day 13, keeping many official data releases paused and federal services constrained. That uncertainty supports a “wait-and-see” tone in rates.
Political backdrop: reporting today highlights federal workforce strain and agency disruptions during the shutdown—useful context for why some data are delayed.

📅 The week at a glance (Oct 13–18)

Even with the shutdown, several market-moving releases are slated (or have updated dates):

Producer Price Index (PPI) — Thu, Oct 16 (Sep): still scheduled. Core PPI is a useful pipeline inflation gauge for the Fed.
Retail Sales — Thu, Oct 16 (Sep): a direct read on consumer demand; strong prints can nudge yields higher. (Note: Census calendar shows 10/16; some September reports elsewhere are delayed.)
CPI (Sep) — rescheduled to Fri, Oct 24 due to the shutdown; this is the big one for rates later this month.
Private calendars also flag NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment and regional surveys; these are not federal stats and may print on time.

💰 Where mortgage rates stand

Freddie Mac PMMS (as of Thu, Oct 9): 30-yr fixed averaged 6.30%, down 4 bps from the prior week — roughly the lowest levels in ~1 year per Freddie commentary.
Daily rates will vary by lender/locking window, but the weekly trend is lower.
Some consumer outlets peg refi quotes near the mid-6s today (directional only; lender pricing varies).

🗳️ How the politics matter for rates (plain English)

Shutdown uncertainty → fewer official data points → markets lean on private data and earnings commentary. That usually dampens big swings until a major report (like CPI) hits.
Fiscal headlines (debt path, CR negotiations) color rate sentiment at the margin: persistent gridlock and higher expected deficits can put a mild upside bias on longer-term yields over time.

💬 What to tell clients

Near-term (this week):

With the bond market closed today, pricing should be fairly steady.
Into Thursday, PPI + Retail Sales could create modest intraday volatility.
If both run hot → expect slightly worse pricing; if soft → we could improve a notch.

Next key catalyst (next week):

The rescheduled CPI on Fri, Oct 24 is the main event.
A cooler inflation print would support further easing in rates; a sticky print could stall or reverse recent improvements.

🔒 Lock / float framing (education, not advice)

Closing ≤ 15 days: Consider locking on today’s sheets if the numbers meet your goals; holiday + shutdown lowers liquidity, which can make reprices “gappier.” (General liquidity dynamic.)
Closing 30–45 days: Blend & defend—lock a portion now (if your lender allows) and watch Thursday’s data.
60+ days: Rate trends are tilting constructive versus midsummer, but CPI (10/24) is the swing factor. If you’re rate-sensitive, set an alert and be ready to lock on favorable moves.

📈 Big-picture read (friendly decoder)

Inflation: Still trending lower than 2023, but markets want confirmation on core services—CPI carries extra weight.
Fed speak: Powell’s remarks late last week were non-policy, so the data remain in charge for now.
Housing sentiment: Homebuilder and agent activity tends to perk up when rates stick in the low-to-mid 6s; we’re starting to see that in purchase activity anecdotes.

🧭 TL;DR for clients

Today is a holiday-light trading day. The two near-term drivers are PPI + Retail Sales (Thu) and the rescheduled CPI (Fri, Oct 24).

Mortgage rates are off their 2024–25 highs and hovering around the low-6s (weekly avg 6.30%), but the CPI print will likely set the tone for late October.

Stay safe and make today great!