Good Monday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Thursday was the last day we saw action, with the bond market closing early at 2pm ET and remaining closed Friday in observance of Independence Day. On Thursday bonds enjoyed a bit of a relief rally after a weak start, when the jobs data came in a bit weaker than was forecast. Since the data came out before AM rate sheets it was factored in early and there were no reprices as the day quietly progressed and traders basically took the rest of the day off for the long weekend. Rates were a bit better than Wednesday, but still on the high side of the range we’ve been used to.

Rates are a little bit better this morning, but not by much. Bonds are starting the week with some small gains, with mortgage bonds up a few basis points and the 10yr Treasury yield down a couple of basis points. The ISM non-manufacturing data came out and was right on market expectations. It should be a calm day, with low reprice risk, with rates settling in even further to the range we’ve seen the last month.

From a higher and better view:

Bonds: The 10-year Treasury is hovering around the mid-4.4% range, near 4.46%, as markets digest softer jobs data, steady oil prices, and today’s ISM Services report. Bonds are calmer — not beach-chair calm, but at least they are no longer sprinting through the terminal.

Mortgage Rates: Daily tracking shows the 30-year fixed around 6.54% and the 15-year fixed around 5.88%. Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed at 6.43% and the 15-year fixed at 5.79%.

Services Economy: ISM Services slipped to 54.0 in June from 54.5, still showing expansion. Employment improved, but new orders cooled and price pressure remains elevated.

Oil / Geopolitics: Oil is near pre-Iran-war levels, with Brent around $72 and WTI around $68–$69, helped by OPEC+ supply increases and improved Strait of Hormuz shipping. Lower oil helps inflation, but geopolitical risk is not exactly wearing pajamas yet.

Fed Watch: Softer labor data reduced some immediate hike pressure, but inflation is still above target. Markets are watching Fed commentary and the June FOMC minutes due Wednesday.

Markets: Stocks are getting help from another chip/AI rally, while investors also look ahead to earnings from Delta, PepsiCo, Samsung, and SK Hynix.

What It Means

Today’s tone is cautiously constructive. Softer labor data, calmer oil, and a slightly cooler services report help the bond market. But mortgage rates remain in the mid-6s, and the Fed is still focused on inflation.

In plain English: the market is steadier, but affordability still needs a game plan.

Housing & Mortgage Strategy

This remains a structure-the-payment market.

The best conversations right now are about:

Seller credits, temporary buydowns, permanent buydowns, builder incentives, ARM options where appropriate, and a realistic refinance plan if rates improve later.

Buyers are still active, but they are doing math. Sellers and builders who help solve the monthly payment problem have the best chance of turning interest into contracts.

Lock vs. Float

Lock bias: If closing within 30 days, the borrower is payment-sensitive, or the file is tight, locking remains the cleaner recommendation.

Float bias: Floating may make sense only with time, flexibility, and a clear trigger. This week’s Fed minutes, inflation commentary, and oil headlines can still move bonds quickly.

Today’s guidance:
Bias toward locking short-term closings. For longer timelines, cautious floating may be reasonable only with a clear risk ceiling and daily monitoring.

Stay safe and make today great!