Good Morning on this best day of the week Wednesday and end of Q3,
What a night watching Messrs. Trump and Biden square off against each other. How does that one liner go, I went to a fight ad a debate broke out? Both sides claiming victory but as I watched the show, it was more difficult to call. Equities were flat last night again this morning, so I would take that as markets didn’t see a clear winner either. What did move markets is that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin commented that there was hope a new stimulus bill could still be approved before the election. Equities jumping (Dow +460) on the news and prospect of more free money flooding into the system and juicing prices. The big jump, along with some better data (GDP revised to -31.4 from -31.7, ADP Private Payrolls 749K vs 650K, and Chicago PMI at 62.4 vs 52.0), is putting some pressure on bonds. The 10-yr is back to .69% and mortgage bonds are off 12bps. If a deal is not done on the stimulus, this will all unravel sans the jobs report to be released on Friday. That is always a market mover and will be scrutinized pretty heavily as it is the last report before the election.
If you want to immerse yourself into the politics of the election, the Wall Street Journal created a great lookup tool (from what I can tell it is nonpartisan). Here is the link https://www.wsj.com/talk2020?mod=wsj_eng_930dbt_eml
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!