Good Monday PM,
My apology for the late start. Bonds are getting hurt as the market tries to find some balance (as we all are). Here is a great recap from Dan Rawitch which is pretty much on point:
Bonds are still struggling to find bottom. The ten year pierced right through the Fibonacci 50% level as if it did not exist. This is important because the moment we sliced through the 50% retracement level, which is 1.44% yield, we immediately ran up and tested that 61.8% level which is a yield of 1.53%. When the Fibonacci 50% level gives way, trader begin looking at that the move as more than a retracement/correction and it begins looking like a full reversal, which means that the original high, which was 1.80% is in play. Let’s hope it does not come to this. The MBS is doing a bit better and again held the bottom of the range and got a bounce. I still would not count on that low holding, not until we see the ten year stabilize. Today we found that Durable orders Ex-transportation, missed expectations by a big margin. The headline number that includes transportation exceeded expectations. We do not focus on the headline number. Later this week we get more inflation numbers, we REALLY need those to come in tame or we will run up to 1.80% on the 10year.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great.