Market Snapshot October 29, 2021

Good Friday AM and Happy Nevada Day.

Nevada Day you ask? Why yes… Nevada Day:

Nevada Day is a legal holiday in the state of Nevada in the United States. It commemorates the state’s October 31, 1864 admission to the Union. The first known observance of Nevada Day (originally known as Admission Day) was by the Pacific Coast Pioneer society during the 1870s. The Nevada Legislature established it as a state holiday in 1933.

Nevada Day was originally observed on October 31 each year. Since 2000, it is observed on the last Friday in October. On this holiday all state, county, and city government offices are closed, along with most schools and libraries. Some private businesses (not Noble Home Loans), like banks, also close at their discretion. In Nevada’s capital, Carson City, a parade is held through the heart of downtown, as well as a carnival and several other events. In 2000, the Nevada Legislature decided to celebrate the holiday on a Friday, hoping that a three-day weekend would generate more interest. Nevada Day is now observed on the last Friday in October. But most of the big events in Carson City, including the parade, occur on the following Saturday. This was shortly followed by Las Vegas and Henderson adding up to three Nevada Days throughout the year in addition to the actual holiday which are determined by city council vote during the first week of each legislative year. Until 2000, Halloween was observed in Carson City, Douglas CountyLyon County, and Storey County on October 30, so as to not conflict with the holiday. Since 2000, Carson City’s newspaper, Nevada Appeal, has sponsored a month-long “treasure hunt” each year in October (except for 2003 and 2004) to celebrate Nevada Day. Beginning on the first Monday, a clue is posted each weekday on a web site set up for the contest which helps narrow down the search area. The clues all have to do with Nevada history so it encourages people to study the state’s history in order to find the “treasure”. Upon finding it, the treasure (a small plaque referred to as a “medallion”) can be redeemed for up to $1000. In 2003, 2008, and 2014 the legal holiday for Nevada Day fell on October 31, the actual day of admission.

In 2018, the state’s first major professional sports team, the National Hockey League’s Vegas Golden Knights, observed Nevada Day with a matinee game.

Any other questions?

By the way, the markets are open today despite this inspired state holiday. Some important data today:

Personal Spending 0.6 vs 0.5
Personal Income -1.0 vs -0.2
PCE YOY 4.4 vs 4.7
Core PCE YOY 3.6 vs 3.7
Chicago PMI 68.4 vs est of 63.5
Consumer Sentiment Final 71.7 vs est 71.4

For the most part, the data was weaker than expected and Treasury Secretary Yellen did remark and reconfirm that inflation is transitory. The PCE will be a big discussion point along with GDP at next week’s Fed meeting.  Will the Fed taper? Yes I think they have to. Will they move up the schedule for rate hikes/lift off? I doubt they will. That all said, bonds started the day under pressure as other economies and central banks are projecting stronger growth. As the trading overlaps in the AM, this had out bonds on the ropes early on. Since then, we have calmed down and improved. The 10-yr is at 1.56% and mortgage bonds up a little, but much improved from the open.

I am not a crypto guy but did stick my toe into that pool this week. Not impressed with it and not anywhere close to being smart enough to invest. This is a gamble. I will say though that a key is to look at the market capitalization and then invest accordingly. If you think the market cap can improve, may be worth a buy… if the market capitalization already seems high, not sure how much more gains are likely (a lesson for any Shiba investors). Doing a little research there are 3b US coins in circulation, regardless of denomination, and there are 590 trillion Shiba tokens… enough said.

And last, likely only interesting me or other geeks: a rise in U.S. adults with felony convictions has contributed to a slowdown in job growth, a new paper in the journal Social Science Research finds. “Surveys of employers have shown increasing reliance on criminal background checks, for example, and audit studies reveal explicit discrimination against people with felony-level criminal records. Estimates from these models indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of a state’s adult population with a felony history is associated with 0.3 percentage point increase in non-employment (being unemployed or not in the labor force) among those aged 18 to 54. Subgroup analysis shows that effects are stronger for women and whites. These results suggest that the stigma of a felony record may play an important part in aggregate employment rates as well as in individual hiring practices.”

Please remain safe and healthy, enjoy a spooktacular weekend and first, make today great.