Good Tuesday AM,
Bonds are ugly this morning with a big gap down in treasury prices which has sent the yield back up to .79. The Mortgage bond pricing also taking a step down (higher rates) after falling through the support level. If we do not hold here, it gets interesting as rates will jump another .125 – .25 as there is no bottom yet to stop the fall. Today the scheduled news was neither bearish or bullish, as housing starts and building permits both missed expectations. Although the numbers did miss, the bar was set high. This morning’s weakness is likely tied to stimulus hopes, which are also pushing the Dow up over 200 points. Be defensive here. Debate is set for Thursday night, how will the candidates handle having their mics turned off (or back on unsuspectingly)? It should make for great theater.
The election is two short weeks away. The WSJ created a great piece on where things stand right now. Here is the link and I am posting just a bit of the text below in case you don’t have time to log in. The online version is much more interactive.
The road to the White House requires winning 270 of the 538 electoral votes at stake, but the decisive votes will likely come from the narrower terrain of about 13 battlegrounds. Those 187 electoral votes from 11 states, plus two congressional districts that each award a single electoral vote, are expected to determine who emerges victorious once the votes are counted. Biden currently has 104 ways to win, Trump, 64.
Democratic nominee Joe Biden starts with a mathematical advantage over President Trump. States considered solidly or likely Democratic have a combined 226 electoral votes, based on combined ratings from three nonpartisan political analysts: the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, starts with 125 electoral votes likely or solidly in his column—meaning each of the contests considered up for grabs is more critical to his path to victory.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great.