Good Friday Morning,
An upside down market. President and Mrs. Trump are Covid positive and some news stories say he is showing signs of being ill. Succession plans now being discussed (by the way Nancy Pelosi is #3 for anyone interested). How does Mr. Trump run an effective reelection campaign from the White House residence? Stocks sold off on the news. Jobs report today is really all over the place. Less jobs but lower unemployment is what we are supposed to believe. MBS opened strong and has since given back all of the morning gains. Treasuries are weak and under pressure this morning as well. The futures markets were down several hundred points on the Covid news but now the markets are flat and seem so be shrugging off the news. Bonds typically like turmoil and uncertainty and should be rallying this morning. Hourly earnings missed expectations, but the average hourly work week beat expectations. Factory orders missed expectations but consumer sentiment beat expectations. No clear direction here.
From Dan Rawitch “For several days now, bonds cannot get traction. We see signs of a rally and then we give back the gains. This is typical in a range bound and sideways environment. Even though we have not lost much ground, the tone has remained mostly bearish and I continue to believe we have seen the bottom for rates for the a while. We need some sort of a major catalyst to make new lows in bond yields. You’d think the President of the United States of America catching COVID, just 31 days prior to the election would provide the necessary fuel to raise bond prices, but so far, no dice. If something so big which causes so much uncertainty in our Nation, on top of all our other challenges, does not lower rates, I cannot imagine what it will take. We now approach the bottom of the trading range and that typically is a signal to float.”
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great. Enjoy the weekend and first, make today great!