Good Friday AM,
I am in CE class this today with limited access so am relying on Dan Rawitch for is insight today.
“Retail Sales came out 3x better than expected. Most of the surprise in the number came from discretionary spending! This is a good sign for the economy and for the prospects of a stronger recovery in Q3 and is VERY bad for bonds. Mortgage Bonds and Treasuries both under pressure. Mortgage Bonds tried to run up above resistance and was smacked back down. We do have the potential of an uptrend, but I fear the resistance may be too strong. Keep in mind, just recently our resistance was support and was tested many times, this leads me to believe it could be equally as strong on the way down. As I have repeatedly said, I fear that bonds need a major catalyst to regain the levels of the summer season. However, I continue to believe the economy is not out of the woods and that rates will rebound in the coming weeks. I just do not know if its 2 weeks or 10 weeks, but I do believe we will retest the highs in bond prices sometime before yearend. You should not care too much about that, you should manage your business based on the present. LO’s and companies that manage bases on future hopes, end up in trouble. LO’s that face and confront the brutal facts of the present market are the ones that come out on top”.
Please remain safe and stay healthy, enjoy the weekend and first, make today great!