Good Friday PM,
Today is First Friday and on top of that being a night to celebrate, it is also a Non-Farm Payroll day (the biggest data set of the month). The jobs report was stunning. The market was looking for 675,000 new jobs and we got over 900,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate dropped one full percentage point, down to 6.9%. The election still looms although it does appear that VP Biden is increasing his lead, it is not over yet, and I would anticipate this to drag out for a while. When VP Gore ran for President and the fate of the election came down to hanging chads in Florida, it took 37 days to resolve. That was one state, this time around we likely have four states to contend with. Treasury prices gapped down and the 10-yr is back up to .82%. mortgage bonds are off a bit as well. Another technical concern is now we have touched the 200-day moving average three times and each time, we were unable to push through. Equity markets are fading a bit today as well. I suspect it is over the surge in Covid cases (more than 120k new cases yesterday, 🙁 ) . This will get worse and will impact growth. The positive piece for bonds is yesterday, the Fed restated their commitment to keep rates low for the foreseeable future. Volatile days and times… I do not think floating at this point is wise.
Please remain safe and healthy, enjoy the weekend and first, make today great.