Good Friday AM,
Stocks for the most part are down. Mortgage bonds also down but trying to claw back. The bright spot is the 10-yr Treasury. That yield is at .84%. the trend is currently our friend as we are well below the 100 day moving average. We are nearing some pretty good resistance and while there are favorable indicators that are necessary to break above the next resistance level, there is limited data, next week desks will be unmanned, and portfolios will need to be balanced. That will create volatility. There is no scheduled news today but COVID is weighing on the market and this is good for bonds. News today is that the Pfizer vaccine could be available in as little as 8 weeks.
Beware of a stimulus surprise in the coming days which could temporarily derail our bond rally.
The MBA released the below chart which doesn’t need much comment. The only question will be how banks and the government will deal with the influx of defaults starting Q2, 2021. Any thoughts or comments are always welcome.
Please remain safe and healthy, enjoy the weekend and first, make today great.