Good Monday PM,
We are T-1 day before the election. With regard to market movement, I am less concerned about the color of the White House than I am about the Senate. Regardless of whether the White house is Blue or Red (and being apolitical, I am not willing to share my preference) it will likely have less impact over the economy than if congress is all blue. Lots of “final” polls out there today offering their spin on where the election is heading. I tend to trust the more balanced lens of the Wall Street Journal and am including some notes from them below. Before we get there, Stocks are on fire clawing back some of last week’s losses. The Dow is up 350 points. Bonds are holding tight which leads me to believe traders feel they are in a neutral place before the election (doubtful anyone wants to be too heavily weighted in either direction at this point). As a matter of fact, within the first hour of trading today, there were more Treasury contracts transacted than in a typical day. I do not think you should float leading into the election. There could be fear that regardless of who wins, we could see massive stimulus. Although if Biden wins, there will be fear of shutting down the economy and this is bullish for bonds and deadly for stocks. The point is, there is likely to be a lot of volatility. For what it’s worth, since the existence of Google search, the President that has received the most search engine interest has won the election. The wider the gap, the bigger the win. I am including a picture of that slide below as well.
It is interesting to read that despite a jump in home purchase activity this summer—but also perhaps because of the coronavirus pandemic—the U.S. homeownership rate slipped by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. The report said the homeownership rate fell to 67.4 percent in the third quarter, down from 67.9 percent in the second quarter but up from 64.8 percent a year ago. Regionally, the Midwest had the highest homeownership rate (71.2 percent), followed by the South (70.8 percent) the West (62.1 percent) and the Northeast (62 percent).
From the WSJ:
Joe Biden leads President Trump nationally, 52% to 42%, in the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll’s final reading of voter opinion before Election Day. In particular, women and seniors favor Mr. Biden by double-digit margins. However, Mr. Biden’s advantage in swing states is within the poll’s margin of error, signaling a path for President Trump to build an Electoral College majority. In addition, while Mr. Biden holds large leads among people who have voted early or plan to, Mr. Trump holds a big lead among those who say they will vote on Election Day.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!