Good Friday AM,
Equities mixed, bonds improving, and crypto… well who knows. With Crypto the trading ends up all over the place at all hours of the day and through so many different funnels, it is hard to know a real price. Bonds though are our main focus and are improving. Don’t get too excited, this is a rebound from some pretty bad bleeding we had over the last two weeks but does not yet mean blue skies are ahead. It just means that we should continue to be aware and ready to lock if the bond market turns against us again. Kind of like a second chance for the moment. The 10-yr, if you are keeping score, is 1.53%. Still waiting on President Biden to decide who he will nominate for the next Fed Chair. Markets still think Powell, I think Brainard has a good chance and if chosen, would help rates (she is more dovish). Powell has done an incredible job during these unprecedented (love that word, so overused) times and certainly deserves to keep his job, but the optics are not in his favor with this administration. On a side note, President Biden transferred his power to the VP today as he is having a colonoscopy and will be anesthetized. Hoping he comes through the procedure well (and quickly).
Here is a little perspective… During the 1980s, federal payments to individuals including Social Security and Medicare was 10% of GDP. From 1990 till the Housing Bust it was about 12%. During the Bust it hit 15%, but quickly fell and was 14.5% on the Covid eve. It then quickly jumped to 20%, a rise of 5.5% or $1.2 trillion! This is partly why we are now shopping like mad and why inflation is elevated.
Please remain safe and healthy, enjoy the weekend, make today great!