Good Morning on this best day of the week, Wednesday,
The news today above all is that Pfizer has upped their vaccine results to be 95% effective with no “serious side effects” Stocks are surprisingly flat (as are bonds for the most part). Mortgage bonds have been extremely volatile today with them giving back almost all of yesterday’s gains early on, but have pared most of those losses back now. I suspect that Mortgage bonds would be fading further if it were not for the Fed, who is very active today buying in particular, mortgage bonds. The ten-year dropped to .85 early on but is now back at a strong line in the sand at .88. If we break above that, we could see yields continue to rise. Many economists are calling for the ten-year to breach 1% by year end. I am not in that corner, but it is worth at least mentioning it. Regardless, Mortgage bonds are close to the top of their current trading channel so it is likely a good time to lock.
The MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) shared some updated forecasts for GDP, rates, etc.. I’m sharing those below. The forecast has a 30-yr mortgage rate at 3.3% at the end of 2021. Just to put that into perspective. With current average rate at 2.8%, the change to 3.3% would add 13% to the monthly payment. That, coupled with more properties on the market, could put some downward pressure on pricing. Click the images for a larger view.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!