Wednesdays’ are the best,
I guess the place to start this morning is that the ADP Payroll number came out and was horrendous. It was the worst in the history of ADP reports and showed 20 million jobs lost. While there is limited correlation between ADP and the monthly jobs report, we will see on Friday. I think the die is cast that the unemployment rate on Friday is going to be a whopper. I am thinking 17% however, there are estimates running 25% on a national level. For some context, some of the poorest countries don’t have an unemployment rates that high. Malawi, which has the unenviable moniker of being the poorest country in the world, has an unemployment rate of 8%. At 25% unemployment, we would be #19 on the list of countries of countries with the highest unemployment. Just ahead of North Korea. I don’t think that’s anywhere we want to be.
Despite the horrible report, stocks continue to trudge ahead with blinders on that tomorrow when we wake up everything will be normal. Well that is half right, as I think this is our normal for the short term. Medium term, and when a vaccine is developed, things get better. Until then, buckle up buttercup. It’s gonna be a wild ride. Bonds are sliding as the Fed has limited its buying. The 10-yr is back to .72 and I would think the Fed will step back in here soon to keep the 10-yr and mortgage bonds in their range.
Please remain safe and stay healthy,
Make today great!