Good Thursday AM,
Beautiful day outside, but traders in the trenches are in the middle of a storm. Dow down 1100 points, all markets well off. The 10-yr yield has blown through 3% and is sitting at 3.08% right now. The bond gods are frowning upon us this morning. They have taken all that was given yesterday. In retrospect, the entire rally appears to have been short-covering.
Powell was asked yesterday if there will be a .75 increase at the next meeting; he answered that it is not being considered. This generated enough bond (and stock) buying to spook all the short-sellers, who started covering the shorts. Short covering causes the biggest of rallies because of the panic buying. However, if this short covering is not followed by institutional buying, the rally fizzles. This is what happened yesterday. Now, the sellers are back, and the ten-year is officially over 3%. Ouch. Stay locked.
Consumer sentiment is a big thing. Just 30% of adults surveyed by Gallup said now is a good time to buy, down 23 percentage points from a year ago. That is the first time the share has been below 50% since the question was first asked in 1978.
Please remain safe and healthy.