Good Morning on this Thankful Thursday,
Stocks weak, bonds flat to weak, and rates stable. Tensions between the US and China continue to escalate. Chinese companies could lose their ability to be listed on US Stock Exchanges. This seems like a long shot, but I would not be too surprised if it happens… in an election year.
Big news day for sure. Let’s dispel with one myth before I get started. Weak data that was not as weak as it could have been does not make the data good. Weak data is weak data. That said, Jobless claims came in at over 2.3 million this a.m. bringing the total to over 38 million workers. Yes, it could have been worse, always could be worse, but that is a staggering number. For context, 10 weeks ago any number over 200k+ stoked fear into the markets. What this data tells us is that businesses that have struggled along to keep employees are continuing to fail. Moving on, Existing home sales plunged 30%, but the silver lining is that prices rose to new record highs. Supply and demand always at work. No supply and growing demand does not lend itself to discounts. Please share that concept. It is a good sign, though, for housing and there is some positive news to cling on to (please see pretty pictures below).
- Shares of homebuilders have been outperforming since the market lows.
Now that 99% of the audience has stopped reading, I wanted to share one last graph that does have me a little worried. I have been speaking of the disconnect in equities from reality and this kind of drives that home.. only one part of the graph is quickly manipulated. I will leave it to you to decide which.
A massive gap has opened up between easing financial conditions and depressed economic activity.
Please stay safe and healthy, make today great!