Good Friday A.M.,
Lot’s of economic data today, all of it dismal. I am not a fan of the argument, ‘it wasn’t as bad as it could have been.’ Who knows what to expect at this point? The data was awful. All businesses (other than Amazon) will feel this recession. 25% of restaurants across the country cannot afford to reopen (that seems like a very light number) and more than 100k bankruptcies expected (also a light number). Mr. Powell may not have made us feel great when he spoke earlier this week about the short term ahead but, he is certainly accurate. It is going to be bumpy and it is going to be an extended period of time. We will need a lot more stimulus, forbearance, deferment, etc.. Hopefully the stimulus is more evenly divvied up this time around. People, not only businesses, need the help.
Duration is the key to all things. This will pass, it’s just a matter of time.
Fun commentary from Dan Rawitch this am, he’s clearly a bond bull and equity bear at this time (and most of the time..)
Retail sales fell by over 17%… the worst number in this country’s history, including the great depression and far far worse than the great recession. This immediately sent the DOW plunging by 250, a fraction of what I believe should happen, but the INSANE CRACK INDUCED Dow is not up on the morning. I cannot come close to wrapping my head around this. Meanwhile bonds, which should be rallying like crazy, or flat and under some pressure. I am so stunned I almost question if I am still sleeping and this is a dream. The market is defying all possible logic and has never been so disconnected. The S&P is currently so overvalued it makes the Dot Com bubble look it was not a bubble. Anyway, it is tough to say where to go from here. Bonds continue to butt up against some strong resistance. We always say to lock at resistance and float at support. I cannot shake this feeling that bonds will breakout and rally, however the prudent thing to do is to always play the high probability shot and lock. Remember… breakout rallies or sell offs are the exception and staying range bound is the rule.
Enjoy the weekend, please remain safe and be healthy. Make today great!