Good Monday AM,
I hope you had a terrific weekend. The war rages on, taking commodity prices up with it and stocks down. Oil hit $130/barrel or $10 higher than it was Friday. It will keep adding to inflation. The Dow down 600+ bonds holding their own and better than expected. The 10-yr is at 1.74. Tough call on mortgages right now. I see the economy slowing but also see some higher inflation in the meantime. Medium term rates improve. I am not sure about short term.

Here are some great graphs… Employment hot? We are still short 1.4mm jobs:

Yield curve heading to inversion (recession):

Here’s how inflation and higher rates translates to America… Higher mortgage rates are combining with an unrelentingly expensive real-estate market to push up costs for homebuyers. It’s now $1,230 per month for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, according to data from home-listing site Zillow. That’s up 36% from the average of $905 a year ago and a 6% increase from January. The cost of war… ‘How will people survive?’ is a great question right about now with the next question being, ‘How high will inflation go?’

Please remain safe and healthy.