Good Monday AM,

Wow, a bit to share, some good, some not so (more unfortunately not so). Today is about bullet points as there’s just too much..

Bond prices gapped down AGAIN this morning and the ten-year is now sits above 2.10%, a high not seen since July of 2019. The DOW is up over 400 points and with bonds tanking one would almost think the war ended. It has not ended and in fact, the attacks are growing more aggressively and nuclear war is now being openly discussed. There is some BS floating around that the peace talks are making progress and while that could be hurting bonds, I think the real culprit is continued inflation fears and some short sellers trying to get ahead of the FED decision on Wednesday. I realize we are a broken record here, but we still do not know where the bottom is and we must continue to play defense. Tomorrow is PPI and then comes the rate decision from the FED. Both of these events can have a severe impact on the market. While I do anticipate at least a short term rally following the FED meeting, I would still prepare for the worst

On growth (and this make a lot of sense), when the pandemic hit, and the dust started to settle a bit, it looked like one of its main effects would be to accelerate pre-existing societal trends. All the winners of the post-Financial Crisis economy seemed to win even more. Amazon, Netflix, everything cloud, all of it. It was all doing great pre-pandemic, and then it seemed to kick into a higher gear. Meanwhile everything physical that was already ailing only seemed to do worse. But it turned out that what looked like an acceleration may have actually just been a pulling forward of things that were going to play out eventually. Basically we front loaded our growth and will not stagnate or retreat.

Super positive but possibly temporary, household net worth increased by $5.3 trillion, or 3.7%, after a more moderate gain in the third quarter, a Federal Reserve report showed Thursday. The fourth-quarter advance pushed net worth to more than $150 trillion.

This is a bad sign.. A quarter of Gen Z and Millennials aren’t paying their rent or mortgage bills because of medical debt. 

Wow, we all know this to be true but here is the data to support it, This month marks the two-year anniversary of the coronavirus pandemic, which the World Health Organization officially declared on March 11, 2020. According to a new report from Redfin, the housing market has changed drastically as there are now half as many homes to choose from, as prices increased 34%. Overall, the number of homes on the market is down 49.9% from 2020 to a record low of approximately 456,000. The share of homes selling for above list price has doubled, while homebuyers are now twice as likely to pay more as they strive to beat out the competition. Nationwide, 46.3% of homes sell for more than the asking price, up from 21.8% in 2020. Nearly 6,000 homes have sold for $100,000 or more over asking price so far this year, up from 2,241 during the same period last year. The typical home sells in just 25 days, down from 53 days in 2020. A record 44.7% of homes sell within just one week, compared with 30.8% two years ago.

Good to live in an area people immigrate to… 18.9M Americans Plan To Move Due To Remote Work. A survey of 23,000 people found that, across the country, homeowners see a life in which the location of their job and where they live are not the same.

And last and most important, Tom Brady Returns: Less than two months after saying he would leave pro football, quarterback Tom Brady said Sunday that he will return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and play again.

Please remain safe and healthy.