Good Tuesday A.M.,
Very light day for data. Equity markets continue to increase and bonds are for the most part hanging in. We did run up against resistance yesterday, and since we did not break through with any conviction, the natural course of things would be for bonds to leak lower a bit. Right now the 10-yr is at .67% and mortgage bonds are almost flat. I am more than a little surprised that with the incredible and frightening social unrest there should be a bigger flight to safety, but the equity markets are keeping that from happening. This is a pretty big week for data which gets underway manana with ADP employment, Factory orders and ISM. The big daddy of them all, the Non-farm payrolls report comes on Friday.
The WSJ shared some really interesting data points I am including below. It seems intuitively odd that some states are paying greater unemployment benefits than what people would make at their jobs but not much of any of this makes sense to me. Take a look at the third chart on when activity starts again. Most of it is more than 6 months away. How many businesses are going to stay afloat? How many workers cannot find jobs? This is alarming to me and why the now swoosh shaped recovery is expected to take 10 years. Not a typo.
In some regions/industries, it is more lucrative to keep the expanded unemployment benefits than to return to work.
Please stay safe (things are really crazy out there) and healthy and make today great!