Good Friday AM,
Groundhogs day for the most part. No economic data. Robinhood investors continue to open up new accounts at incredible pace with (likely) some stimulus money to take part in the equity rally. A few things here… 1) the stimulus is likely to run out at some point (July), 2) new account openings will slow to a trickle and new money will slow with it, and 3) the market up days have been much smaller. I guess we can hope for a cure, a V-shaped recovery, no second wave (albeit we seem to already be having one), but without some steroid shot all clear sign to the economy, equities are unlikely to maintain their current level. The big test will be the Republican rally in Tulsa. 20k people expected, we will see in 1 – 2 weeks how many people become sick, although I am already skeptical on the accuracy of the news coverage. Certainly not from a partisan perspective, but it would be difficult for anyone to overcome the stigma of people getting sick from a rally you endorsed knowing the risks involved.
Bonds are again hanging tough. The 10-yr leaking a little to .71 and mortgage bonds up a dozen basis points. Stocks and bonds have been moving in lock step of late. For bonds and rates to improve, it will take stocks to go on sale. The pattern has been to lock when we are up close to the top of the trading range. We are there yet again today.
No economic data to speak of today. Next week is also light until Thursday when we get the final reading on Q1 GDP.
Happy Father’s Day weekend, Please remain safe and healthy and make today great!