Market Snapshot June 18, 2020


Good Thursday AM,


Bonds hanging tough. Stocks look to be threatening a third day of losses in a row. I know it feels like Monday’s gain was a big deal, but it is likely that all of those gains will be gone today. The 10-yr is walking back to a 60 handle currently at .69. We like that. Mortgage bonds up a dozen bps or so. For us to see some real improvement in pricing, stocks will have to decline. I can share a dozen reasons why I expect this to happen, but none more telling than the disconnect indicated in the chart below:

aaa wsj

Jobless claims released today were a bit surprising. Claims missed by a bunch to the HIGH side by 1.55mm (1.22mm expected). Rut Row. What does this mean for furloughed people who may not be brought back to work will have to be seen. My guess is the government will have to extend the unemployment payment boost. Nice little picture on public expectations for that as well just below.  One blog I follow now pegs real unemployment at 22-23%.

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Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!