Good Morning on this fantastic Monday,
Overnight and at the open, it looked like equities were in for a rough day, down 700 points on the Dow. Since then stocks have made a big comeback to roughly unchanged on the day. We will see how this finishes. Bonds, which should be taking it on the chin when stocks are rallying, are taking it mostly in stride. The 10-yr is at .69 and mortgage bonds off a little. The hope is that the economy rebounds on a V shape. That must be the consensus of the 13mm Robinhood accounts, which are largely owned by 30 somethings. Unfortunately, I still anticipate this ending up badly for them. The equity markets are not going to be sustainable at these levels with the recovery years away. That doesn’t mean that stocks will roll over and cave in… I expect many more weeks like last week where we lost big on one day and then it flutters around making people feel safer only to have equities fade again. After a several weeks of that, you look back and are down 10k points. We have retraced almost 50% of the losses from March. Charts and Mr. Fibonacci himself would agree it is time to expect another leg down.
Fed Chairman Powell is in front of congress for the semi annual testimony tomorrow and Wednesday. I would expect him to be bit hawkish on the economy (as he was during the last FOMC press conference). Stocks could be impacted.
The WSJ had a few charts today, which to me show a big disconnect between Robinhood investors and market fundamentals.
- US consumers, especially those under 40, have been unusually bullish.
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!