Good Morning on this best day of the week Wednesday,
Bonds are stronger today and/as the DOW is down 200 points. The 10-yr has fallen below the .79% line (.78% currently) in the sand and hopefully that line will now act as support instead of resistance and allow the 10-yr to settle back in the low 70’s to high 60’s. Mortgage bonds are up on the day despite looking weaker. Today is rollover day, so bond pricing is adjusted for 21bps as commitments roll to August. The FED will release their monetary and economic statement in about 2 hours. No chance for a rate hike. Not much lower they can go either, as they are currently not willing to go negative (yet). I would expect recognition for the last jobs report beating expectation (albeit flawed) while expressing concern for an expected sluggish and lengthy recovery, with low rates dominating for the foreseeable future. Maybe sprinkle a little of the Fed is actively reviewing the economic data and will act as appropriately to support economic growth. The Fed does have lots of more bullets in the chamber and, as they are currently almost single-handedly supporting the economy, they are clearly not afraid to use them.
There was an encouraging graph in the WSJ today sharing that US consumers are gradually getting more comfortable with resuming some activities, but it will be a long time before confidence is fully restored.
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!