Good Monday Morning to you,
I am speechless over the weekend’s events and did not sleep much last night. What is truly amazing is how few deaths there were with so much anger, frustration, and confrontation. I pray that tensions and tempers cool a bit to find a productive solution to this prevalent problem.
Early a.m. (yes, I was awake), bonds were taking a hit and stock futures were up. This is a big week for data, so I was and am curious how markets going to react. Now that we are midway through the trading day, bonds have reversed course and stocks have given up a bit of gains. It is pretty calm in the markets today. The week ahead brings what has traditionally been the most important slate of econ data on any given month (ISM reports and the Jobs report on Friday). We have yet to see a meaningful market reaction to the data, largely because no one knows how to interpret length of the cliff your falling off of when you’re mid-air in the dark. When we hit bottom, we will know how big the hill to climb back up is. Friday’s jobs report is going to be one for the record books. I would not be surprised if we have 20% unemployment. Think about one out of every five people you know, see, etc.. are out of work. As quarantine policies ease throughout the country, it will be interesting to see whether markets view this as an informative shift in the data, or still something that was to be expected. I see stocks are very overvalued (still). I do not see the logic in how they continue to rise beyond the prior price/earnings ratio (pretty picture below) when we have no idea what earnings will be in the future. It is maddening to me, but you cannot fight the tape. Best place to be is on the sidelines. Let’s see where bonds close today, but if not better than where they are currently, I think the better choice is to lock.
That’s all I’ve got,
Please stay safe and healthy, make today great!