Good Thursday AM,
Jobless claims came out this a.m. and were far worse than expected. 1.43 million new claims were filed. If there are still people who think we are headed for a V-shaped recovery, this report should give some clarity that it is unlikely. On the weak report, stocks are down and bonds are strong this morning. The ten-year has now dropped to .59 and could be headed to .55. Mortgage bonds are doing well, but off their early highs. We have broken into a new trading channel and we will see how convicted bonds are at these new levels. If they don’t hold through today, that would be a sign of a pull back and the recommendation would be to lock. If the close on the 10-yr is below .58%, it’s a green light to float until the 10-yr backs up. That said, the trend is our friend until it is not, and we ride these until they are broken.
Congress working on a new stimulus package and to extend the unemployment bonus, however it is unlikely the weekly payment will continue at $600. The reports are indicating closer to $200/week and an amount of 70% of the regular pay. I can see where this will be a shock to the system.
Just for smiles, here’s a fun chart from the WSJ:
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!