Good Morning on this best day of the week Wednesday,
News today was stronger than expected however, concern over Washington gridlock prevails and stocks are taking a hit (maybe other than GameStop, which is ridiculous and the most recent example of the need for an orderly market focused investing not gambling). The Dow down 300 and bonds are up. The 10-yr has clawed back to 1.01% and looks poised to dip below 1% again (yay). The next test is at .97%. If we break that, we have some wind at our back and rates will improve. That said, and while I would expect some improvement, I would not be thinking rates will drop in lockstep with the 10-yr. Here’s why. As rates drop, volume of loans increases and in order to manage fuller pipelines, rates are the lever. When more loans are needed, rates dip, when less loans are needed, rates don’t dip. The Fed announces its rate decision in 40 min, there has been a tendency for bonds to fall after he speaks. The last time he spoke we went into a downward spiral that is only 50% recovered. Just a word(s) of caution.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!