Market Snapshot February 5, 2021

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Good Friday AM,


Jobs report today which is by far the biggest market moving report of the month was the 2 punch of the 1, 2 combo. The 1 punch was news that the Biden stimulus package had passed the senate (it was actually 50-50 with VP Harris casting the deciding vote). We will see if the GOP can filibuster from here. President Biden just finished his partisan speech on the dismal jobs report and the economic paralysis he “inherited” (always enjoy this tactic, which both parties use generously).


When the overnight session brought news of the Senate passing the $1.9 trillion spending bill.  Bond yields surged higher as a result.  The second input was the big miss in the jobs report (combined with the big beat in the unemployment rate).  The initial reaction was strongly positive, but it has since reversed course (and then reversed again, and then again one more time). All of the bond market volatility is playing out in a vacuum that almost completely ignores the stock market (equity markets are up marginally today). If you ever wondered whether or not NFP deserves the title of the most consequential economic report for the bond market, days like today make it clear. A pictures says 1000 words. Stay tuned as we watch this unfold today.

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Some interesting insight from the WSJ for not only grads but their families who support them… 45% — The drop in hiring rates for entry-level college-graduate positions since the start of the pandemic, more than for any other category of education. Experts say the trend is especially troubling because the first job after graduation is critical to launching a career, and those who graduate into unemployment are five times more likely to be stuck in mismatched jobs for years.


And… forget about Gamestop shorts and options… the futures game was in play long before we were even a country… as a matter of fact, the first instance of a bubble is credited with starting on this day in 1637, “Tulipmania” hit its peak in the Netherlands, with the price of the rare Witte Croonen tulip bulb reaching 1,345 guilders per half-pound, up 2,506% in 33 days. Over the next five years, the bulbs lost an annual average of 76% of their value, until they fetched only 37.5 guilders in 1641.


Please remain safe and healthy, enjoy the weekend and first, make today great!