Good Friday AM,
Despite some mixed data (below) US markets are pretty flat for the moment as everyone is taking a wait and see approach. The 10-yr is at 2.00% and mortgage bonds slightly better. Russian equities lost 33% yesterday. Despite today’s calmness, this is a time of extreme volatility. Markets may look completely different on Monday than they do today. Just be aware.
- Pers Income 0.0 vs -0.3
- Pers Spend 2.1 vs 1.5
- PCE YOY 6.1 vs 5.5
- Core PCE YOY 5.2 vs 5.1
- Pending Home Sales Index -5.7 vs 1.0
- Consumer Sentiment 62.8 vs 61.7
War continues. Kyiv is ready to fall and so will the rest of Ukraine. What will happen to the current democratic government (both the government as a whole and those running it) in Ukraine is a forgone conclusion. This is likely to be the first stop on Putin’s train to remake the USSR (plus anywhere else he can add). This is no joke for Europe and being a member of NATO (I think there are 30 countries, of which Ukraine is not one) requires that we have a unified front. An attack on any NATO member is an attack on all and therefore we all go to fight. US is sending an additional 8k soldiers to Germany preemptively. I don’t want to be overly dramatic but I wonder how many larger conflicts started this same way. I am sure China is watching carefully to see what the US and world response is as they may have some sight of their own in Asia (Taiwan, etc.).
I thought the below chart was interesting and worth sharing.
Please remain safe and healthy, enjoy the weekend and first, make today great.