Good Friday AM,
For those not completely obsessed with financing and mortgage, I am not only jealous of you all, but also recognize the first Friday of the new month may not be unto itself a big deal. For the other person (me), it’s a pretty important day as we get the biggest economic report of the month, the BLS jobs report. It creates a lot of volatility, which is not typically good for rates. If the report beats expectations, it can take us a week or more to lick our wounds and regain the losses. Well, that Friday is today. The report came out and did not beat expectations. Actually the very opposite. Less than half the number of jobs expected were actually created, the unemployment rate, which everyone will focus on (and is inaccurate, which I can write even more paragraphs on. If anyone would like to read those, just raise your hand), is down but as we all remember that one day we learned fractions, it doesn’t have the be the numerator that moves the needle the denominator does as well (and does a better job of it). Yes hourly earnings were up but.. not nearly as up as expected. Still volatility is the rule not the exception and we are currently seeing it. Bonds started off in a hole and have now climbed out. The 1-yr is at 1.38%, which may not mean much when reading it, but two weeks ago we were pushing 1.70% so you can see how the recent data (and the comments yesterday about the flattening yield curve) are starting to help rates. Mortgage bonds are lagging, as they have been, but we will take the gains we are seeing. Stocks not doing so well. Crypto also getting beat up a bit. Not sure we hold these levels today but if we can, we may see some improved rates next week (don’t look for much in today’s rate sheets).
I did want to share this piece from the Mortgage Banker’s Association. Anyone thinking that vacancy rates are increasing allowing buyers and renters more sway in negotiations, well… I am not sure that’s the right strategy.
Please remain safe and healthy, enjoy the holiday season, and make today great.