Good Monday A.M.,
Stocks started strong on the news that vaccines were out for delivery over the weekend and the first treatments were administered this a.m. Truly remarkable how the medical community has collaborated in record time to fight the pandemic. The downside is of course, as it was always expected to be, the time to distribute enough vaccines to the public. It is likely to be the end of next spring before it is widely available if you want elect to take it. Until then, cases will continue to increase and there will continue to be a heavy toll on our economy (locally and nationally). After the first pop in equity prices which likely started in Asia and Europe, US markets settled down. It seems to be a “buy the rumor and sell the news” day. That has given bonds an opportunity to regain a footing. The 10-yr is at .90 and doing ok now. Mortgage bonds are up a bit as well. Wednesday brings the FOMC meeting announcement and that is likely the last chance of a scheduled news event impacting rates. If the Fed plans to buy more long-term loans (mortgages for example), rates will improve. If they buy less, well rates will worsen. It will be an interesting day. There are few reasons to float right now.
This is the week for a stimulus deal (or partial one). 9 million unemployment recipients (out of roughly 20 million total) will lose their benefits without some added stimulus.
There is $70b in delayed rent payments due. Evictions will start in January, forbearance will expire end of Q1, 2021 is going to start off very interesting.
Here are a few interesting notes on housing and migration. With 80% of companies agreeing to allow their employees to work from home for the foreseeable future, there are not a lot of reasons to stay in high cost, highly dense, areas (as the chart below shares):
Do you feel wealthier? Most do and should. 20Trillion in home equity. How far will the housing market run?
And in a asterisk of a note at the bottom, the Electoral College will formally cast votes today for the U.S. president.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!