Good Tuesday AM,

Retail Sales missed expectations by a bunch. Bonds are flattish and stocks are in the red.  Clearly consumers are not feeling great and this aligns well with the recent consumer sentiment numbers. The key with minimal data is what happens between now and the annual Jackson Hole summit next week. The Fed has been known to spill some beans during his annual speech there. If the economic data weakens (although not much is reported between now and then), the Fed will dampen the taper comments squelching all this taper talk. That will be good for rates. That said, bond investors have clearly not been worried about tapering, the proof is in the price pudding and price is holding up well. For now, I would float as I believe we will run up and test the top of the price range on the ten year.

Please remain safe and healthy, make today great.