Good Morning On This Fantastic Friday,
Equities are improving on some news that a drug in Chicago is helping those who have Covid-19. That company’s (Gilead) stock is on fire. Markets and all of us excited that there could be a cure, at least until there is a vaccine. Too early to tell but fingers and toes are crossed. Typically we would expect bonds to be on the ropes when equities are running higher but that is not the case in the new Fed world. In this new reality, The Fed buys all kinds of bonds and debt instruments. The Fed does of course telegraph maximums it will buy, which allows bond sellers to carefully decide which and how much to sell. It’s very orderly for the time being and with that, the 10-yr yield is hovering at .61% and mortgage bonds/rates are stabilizing. The cloud in the skies though is the threat from the impending economic storm we could be hit with. Restarting the country is not as easy as shutting it down was. 22mm people have lost jobs in the last 4 weeks and unemployment claims will continue to mount. It is tough to see where many of the traditional industries come back as strong or at all. Think about those packed restaurants and bars. I would anticipate social distancing allowing less people in crowded spaces. How does that look for the revenue model of those businesses? What about sports arenas, etc? We will see, but this is a longer road back, in my opinion, until there is a vaccine. On a positive note, I do expect construction and housing to be of the first industries to improve.
Patience is a virtue we all must embrace. None of us have the ability to individually speed up the recovery.
I’m praying for a healthy weekend for us all with only great news. Please stay safe/healthy and make today great!