Good Tuesday AM,

CPI came in a bit higher than the consensus number. The market has taken it in stride and is actually up on the morning. It is likely that this month and next 2-3 months we will see the highest post-recovery CPI numbers, so if .03% is all they’ve got, just wait until the third quarter and you will see inflation numbers that are too low and will keep the FED on the lower rate path. That said, it does not matter what the FED does (unless they are buying or selling bonds), as the FED does not control the long end of the yield curve. The market certainly proved this as it drove rates higher.  As for the short term, it appears this bounce back has some more to go. Just please stay alert as it can change quickly.

Fear no more, there will be ample toilet paper… U.S. toilet-paper sales in January were down more than 4% from a year earlier—just before Covid-19 stirred a buying frenzy. Given that legions of Americans continue to work and attend school from home, the decline suggests last year’s stockpiling is starting to have an effect on sales.

Please remain safe and healthy, make today great.