Good Wednesday AM on this best day of the week,
Bonds are not happy.
The 10-yr is currently at 4.30. Today we got just the opposite… we didn’t get a lot of news, but the ISM non-manufacturing index, which is extremely important came in at 54.5 the market was looking for 52.4. So right now, any bit of good news for the economy far worse for bonds. Mortgage Bonds reacting the same way.
Looking for a glimpse into what the Fed is thinking?
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said positive economic reports will buy the central bank some time as it decides if it needs to raise interest rates again to control inflation. “That was a hell of a good week of data we got last week, and the key thing out if it is it’s going to allow us to proceed carefully,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a “Squawk Box” interview. Friday’s jobs report from the Department of Labor showed better-than-expected job growth in August and average hourly earnings rose less than forecast. Also last week, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose just 0.2% in July, and job openings, a key measure of labor market tightness, fell to their lowest level since March 2021. Waller, who has often favored tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates, said the key is to “see whether this low inflation is a trend or if it was just an outlier or a fluke.”
And on a completely separate topic, this was an interesting piece from the WSJ on employment.
Some workers are celebrating their promotions by walking out the door. Promotions are typically considered milestones that solidify an employee’s place at a company. But a large number of employees leave soon after their first promotion, according to new data from payroll-services provider ADP. Analyzing the job histories of more than 1.2 million U.S. workers between 2019 and 2022, the ADP Research Institute found that 29% of people quit their jobs within a month after their first promotion.
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!